Still Running Blind based on Sales History?

Future is increasingly nothing like the past. However, most companies continue to forecast with exponential smoothing models to blindly extrapolate history into the future. Some are applying ML to continue to blindly extrapolate in a more 'sophisticated' manner: this is a dog that won't hunt if you are dealing with a product that is price sensitive and often promoted.

We recommend a better approach: Demand Modeling & Optimization. Apply Supply Optimization concepts, but now to the Demand side.