Only the decision layer can price what uncertainty costs.
The same scorecard, three ways
Record and planning systems can show you the numbers. Neither can price the premium you pay to be resilient — because that row only exists if you decide across futures, not report one or project one.
A dashboard, a projection, and a scorecard that prices risk.
The same KPIs, read by three different layers. Only the decision layer carries the cost-of-uncertainty row — the cost of resilience, of forecast error, of churn lost to plan thrash.
A dashboard
What already happened.
- ·Historical revenue, margin, cash
- ·One number per tile
- ·No view of the future
- ·No ranges, no risk
- ·No cost of uncertainty
A projection
What one future looks like.
- ·Projected revenue and margin
- ·Forecast error and bias
- ·A feasible plan
- ·Against a single future
- ·No resilience, no premium
- ·No cost of uncertainty
A balanced scorecard
Past and future, priced for risk.
- ·Everything the others show
- ·KPI hierarchy: L0 EVA → L1 → L2
- ·Across all futures, with ranges
- ·Prices the cost of uncertainty
Every number traces to the decision behind it.
A dashboard tells you the margin fell. The scorecard tells you which customer, which lane, which spot-buy — and how likely it was to happen at all. Three properties separate it from a flat dashboard.
Linked, not flat
Every KPI traces from L0 enterprise value down to the order line, mode flip or purchase order that drives it. Drill any breach to its cause.
Banded, not single
Each metric carries its range across futures — not one stale point. You see exposure, not just status.
Stochastic root cause
Root-cause runs on the distribution: which driver or risk moved this KPI, by how much, and in which futures.
Healthy averages, margin bleeding underneath.
The average is a place no customer actually lives. Every aggregate reads healthy at L0 and L1 — then the drill into the customer mix shows where the loss is quietly funded.
One number for the whole enterprise reads green — drill to see what it averages over.
One customer drills into the order lines quietly funding the loss — invisible at the aggregate, obvious once the scorecard prices it across the range.