Points of View.
3 essays · Gated · Work email required
Each PoV makes a single argument and carries it through. Click a card, give us your work email, enter the 6-digit code we send back. Then read.
Plans Break. Policies Hold.
Why a decade of better predictions, better visibility, and better firefighting hasn’t made supply chains more resilient — and what changes when we optimize the policy instead of the plan.
Walk through any large enterprise’s planning floor on any given Tuesday and you will see the same scene playing out. Not because the technology is poor. The forecasts have gotten better. The control towers light up in real time. The AI/ML layer sees patterns no human would catch. And yet the war rooms have not gone away. This paper names seven specific failures in today’s planning paradigm — and the seven capabilities that answer them.
Forecasting the Future, Not the Past.
Why ninety percent of corporate forecasting answers the wrong question — and what a forward-looking, probability-aware forecast actually predicts.
Most enterprise forecasts are extrapolations. A regression on history, dressed in the language of prediction. They tell us what last quarter looked like and project it forward. They do not see the inflection: the price elasticity that has shifted, the supplier whose variance is widening, the demand signal that has decoupled from the macro. This paper makes the case for forecasts that name the future the business is actually walking into — with the distribution attached.
Optimization vs Negotiation.
Why the monthly S&OP meeting reconciles five conflicting plans by negotiation — and what optimization actually changes in the room.
Every monthly S&OP cycle ends with five plans that do not agree, reconciled in the last 48 hours of the month by whoever is loudest in the meeting. Marketing arrives with a forecast. Supply Planning arrives with a feasible build. Finance arrives with the commit the Board has already heard. The numbers do not reconcile, so the room does. This paper argues for a different operating posture: the math reconciles, the room ratifies, the CFO defends.